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DECEMBER 2023

By Brian Berk, editor-in-chief

MARKET TRENDS

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Kathie Canning is editor-in-chief of Dairy Foods.
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anningk@bnpmedia.com.

Cheese continues its ascent


Dollar sales rise in a majority of subcategories, including natural cheese.

Photo courtesy of Avtor / iStock / Getty Images Plus

Louis Armstrong, founder, and CEO of Boise, Idaho-based Killer Creamery, joins us for Episode 9 of our “Let’s Talk Dairy” podcast — “Creating a better-for-you dairy brand.”

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More cheese, please… In several cases, consumers are buying more.

When it comes to natural cheese, sales continue to chug along. Overall, natural cheese totaled just shy of $17.5 billion for the 52 weeks ending Oct. 8, a 5% year-over-year (YoY) gain, according to Circana, a Chicago-based market research firm. In unit sales, which are much tougher for dairy categories to show gains in due to inflation, natural cheese bucked the trend, gaining 1% YoY to 4.38 billion.

Breaking it down into subcategories, natural cheese-shredded, natural cheese-chunks, natural cheese-slices, natural cheese-crumbled and refrigerated grated cheese all had strong years, Circana data reveals. Each of these subcategories enjoyed both dollar sales and unit sales gains during the past year.

Natural cheese-shredded dollar sales equaled $6.7 billion for the year ending Oct. 8, a 6% increase, while unit sales increased 2% to 1.8 billion. Taking the top spot, private-label products were quadruple any other competitor, increasing its dollar sales by 7% to $4.5 billion. Unit sales also rose by 3% to 1.25 billion. Lactalis Heritage Dairy’s Kraft brand placed second on the list, generating $967 million in dollar sales, a 2% YoY improvement, but unit sales dropped by 5% to 266 million, Circana data states.

A rising star in the natural cheese-shredded subcategory was Frigo, a Saputo Dairy Foods USA brand, whose dollar sales jumped nearly 22% to just shy of $50 million, while unit sales rose 15% to $12.5 million.

Within natural cheese-chunks, dollar sales clocked in at nearly $4.5 billion, a YoY increase of 5%. Unit sales rose a slight 1% to 968 million. Private label made up about one-third of all dollar sales ($1.63B) in this category. Placing second on the list with solid growth for the year ending Oct. 8 was Oregon-based Tillamook County Creamery Association (TCCA), whose dollar sales lifted 6% YoY to nearly $283 million and 42 million in unit sales, a 1% increase.

Natural cheese-slices improved by 4% YoY to $3.1 billion, with unit sales showing a negligible gain of 0.1% to 870.5 million. Private label again finished first with about half of all dollar sales ($1.56 billion). Sargento placed second, with dollar sales of $796 million, a small 0.2% decline YoY. The Plymouth, Wis.-based company’s unit sales dropped 2% to 222 million.

Blue, Font

Again, TCCA had a solid showing in natural cheese-slices, enjoying double-digit YoY dollar sales ($162 million, up 11%) and unit sales (37 million, up 12%).

Natural cheese-crumbled had an even better year. Its dollar sales generated YoY growth of 8% and sales of $570 million, to go along with a 2% unit sales gain to 119 million. Athenos leads this category — outpacing private label by $50 million — and enjoyed solid growth. The Emmi Roth USA brand’s dollar sales jumped 12% YoY to $158 million, paired well with its nearly 30 million units sold, a 9% rise.

Although on a smaller basis in terms of dollars, refrigerated grated cheese was a superstar during the past year. The subcategory’s dollar sales rocketed higher by 17% to $161 million, while unit sales jumped 9% to nearly 33 million, per Circana data. Private label is No. 1 in this category, accounting for more than one-third ($57 million) in dollar sales for the period ending Oct. 8.

However, several brands exhibited tremendous growth in both dollar and unit sales, including Green Bay, Wis.-based Belgioioso; Plymouth, Wis.-based Sartori; Mexican Cheese Producers brand La Chona; and Kraft, placing second to fifth in terms of dollar sales, respectively. All achieved YoY dollar sales percentage gains exceeding 20% YoY (Belgioioso, $32 million, up 23%; Sartori, $14 million, up 21%; La Chona, $11 million, up 23%; and Kraft, $8 million, up 28%), according to Circana research.

Mixed and negative results

Natural cheese-string/stick, ricotta cheese and natural cheese-cube exhibited mixed results. Natural cheese-string/stick dollar sales demonstrated a solid 5% dollar sales raise to $1.6 billion, but unit sales declined by 4% to 362 million. Private label led this category as well, selling about one-third ($525 million in dollar sales) in this subcategory. Kraft, ranked No. 4, made a strong move in this category, with dollar sales skyrocketing 15% YoY to $85 million. Its unit sales also showed a healthy increase of 6% YoY to 26 million.

Despite being considered mixed, many could argue ricotta cheese had an excellent year, with the subcategory enjoying a healthy 12% dollar sales gain to $304 million., with unit sales dropping 0.1% to 70 million. Private label led again in this subcategory, accounting for $114 million in dollar sales for the 52 weeks ending Oct. 8. But Lactalis American brand Galbani is hot on private label’s tail. Galbani’s dollar sales jumped by 19% YoY to $111 million, while unit sales rose 8% to 23 million.

Processed cheese sales were not as robust as its natural cheese brethren. Overall, this category saw dollar sales rise 3% to $3.4 billion, but unit sales soured by 4% to 704 million, per Circana data. Mixed results of improving dollar sales and weakened unit sales were evident in the processed/imitation cheese slices and aerosol/squeezable cheese spreads.

Starting with processed/imitation cheese slices, the subcategory’s dollar sales came in at nearly $2 billion for the year ending Oct. 8. However, unit sales dipped by 3% to 437 million. Kraft led the way in this category, melting the competition in this subcategory with $1.08 billion in sales, good enough for a 4% YoY advance. Unit sales, though, declined by 8% YoY to $192 million.

Aerosol/squeezable cheese spreads also generated mixed results. Dollar sales climbed 7% to $119 million, but unit sales dropped 4% to 28 million. Mondelez International Inc.’s Nabisco placed first in this subcategory, with dollar sales rising 9% to $54 million. The Chicago-based company suffered a YoY unit sales drop of 3% to 10 million.

Conversely, weakness in both dollar sales and unit sales was exhibited in the cheese spreads/balls, processed/imitation cheese-loaf, and processed/imitations cheese-shredded, categories, meaning all experienced both dollar sales and unit sales declines for the 52 weeks ending Oct. 8, Circana data reports.

Cheese spreads/balls dollar sales declined slightly by 1% to $573 million. However, unit sales cratered by 8% to 144 million. Properties owned by Chicago’s Bel Brands placed No. 1 and No. 2 in this subcategory, but they had different years in terms of growth. The top seller for the year ending Oct. 8 was The Laughing Cow, whose dollar sales of $106 million was a 1% decline YoY. Unit sales dropped a larger 11% to 26 million. Boursin, however, put up huge sales gains of 22% to $73 million in dollar sales and its unit sales advanced 11% to 11 million, according to Circana data.

Processed/imitation cheese-loaf dollar sales also dipped by 1% YoY to $512 million, with unit sales titling downward bv 3% to $70 million. Pittsburgh-based Kraft Heinz Co.’s Velveeta accounts for nearly all dollar sales in this subcategory ($504 million, down 1% YoY and unit sales down 3% to 69 million). Private label, Kraft (the brand under the Lactalis umbrella), Chanhassen, Minn.-based Bongards and Arden Hills, Minn.’s Land O’Lakes placed second through fifth in this category, respectively.

Lastly, processed/imitation cheese-shredded suffered a more difficult year. The subcategory’s dollar sales fell by 7% to $117 million. Unit sales faced even tougher sledding, fizzling by 15% to 29 million. Velveeta was No. 1 in this subcategory, accounting for $30 million in sales (a YoY decrease of 8%) and 10 million units (a 20% YoY decline), according to Circana.

The No. 2 processor in the processed/imitation cheese-shredded subcategory for the 52 weeks ending Oct. 8 was Upfield US Inc.’s Violife, which continues to inch closer toward the top spot in terms of dollar sales, improving by 22% YoY to $26 million. The Englewood Cliffs, N.J.-based company’s unit sales were also strong, rising 11% YoY to 5 million. DF