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The global TiO₂ industry saw significant growth in 2024, estimated in the 9-10% range. Yet, the results of the multinational producers (MNPs) were generally disappointing. Low utilization rates among leading producers have persisted, driving costs up and impacting pricing power among these producers. Given the numerous economic uncertainties, 2025 does not appear to offer a significantly better outlook. A great deal of hope is — why is the industry in the current state, and what can participants do to adjust to the new reality?

FIGURE 1–ǀ–Graphical representation of current market by classification.

Without question, the industry response to the current cycle is extremely different than either of the past two cycles.

• Chinese expansion has not stopped, both in terms of capacity expansion and net export growth. TiPMC estimates Chinese over-capacity to be as high as 400-500 ktpa, while net exports have shown an annual growth rate of about 15% year over year since 2016. The combination has resulted in:

• Chinese pricing maintaining a significant difference versus MNP pricing in all regions
• The addressable export market for Chinese producers being saturated, such that each market classification (Chinese producers vs. MNPs) is set to grow organically, with nearly no transition between the two classifications
• Chinese over-capacity keeping the large price difference intact — no transitioning from Chinese product to MNP product occurred

• The hope is that new tariffs will force Chinese delivered pricing to export customers higher, encouraging a transition to other producers. Early indications are that European imports from China have decreased to levels similar to those in late 2019 and early 2020.
• Underlying growth in key MNP markets — North America and Western Europe — has remained stagnant due to U.S. housing conditions and the overall poor state of the German economy, which drives growth in Western Europe.

FIGURE 2–ǀ–2016–2024: Chinese and multinational producer (MNP) share and growth by region.

Still, the new reality is that without the potential impact of tariffs, world growth will favor Chinese producers, as they now hold the majority of share, particularly in developing countries, whose TiO₂ consumption grows the quickest. Thus, TiPMC expects organic world growth to be one-third of total growth to MNPs, while Chinese producers receive two-thirds of overall global growth. Given the over-capacity of each class of producers, it is difficult to see global utilization rates, and producer cost and pricing power, changing significantly in 2025.

FIGURE 3–ǀ–2024 vs. 2023 volume growth.

What Does This Mean for TiO₂ Consumers, and What Can Be Expected in the Future?

TiPMC believes industry consolidation will not only continue but is likely to accelerate during 2025. Tronox has already announced the closure of its Botlek, Netherlands, plant (90 ktpa capacity). Consolidation can come with heavy shutdown costs but drives long-term utilization rates higher, supporting both price and fixed cost distribution.

Coupled with tariffs, longer-term prices are expected to trend upward as MNP utilization rates increase. Demand surges may lead to higher prices for TiO₂ in the long term. Price increases are required to sustain the industry and meet the needs of the more discerning customers served by MNP producers. These price increases are also required to support the upstream mineral sands industry, which is also experiencing difficulties — particularly those focused on chloride customers.

Thus, TiPMC sees both TiO₂ producers and customers facing a new reality. Those who survive, and potentially thrive, will be required to make significant choices to achieve long-term profitability for the industry at sustainable levels. TiPMC believes companies cannot depend on tariffs long term but must support their ongoing business through strong, consistent earnings, leading to strong balance sheets.

For more insights into the TiO₂ and Mineral Sands markets, visit TiPMCconsulting.com. For more information about the impact price stabilization on the TiO₂ industry, ask to see our latest issues.